MPS Comp

Looking for a reasonable comp for Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson is a difficult task even before we get to the math of things.

He's fast, very fast (some have suggested he was the fastest player in the 2009 draft) and he's also a big kid (6.01, 201 and turned 18 in April) so that's a rather unusual skill/size combination for a player his age.

Secondly, he played in the Swedish Elite League (50 games, significant minutes--11:13 a night) and ranked 3rd among eligible players in SEL points. He was very impressive at the World Juniors and earned his points (MPS did not play on the featured line often).

Notorious hard markers Redline Report had this to say: "Swedish winger Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson possesses blazing speed and is the best pure skater in the entire draft. He's also got good size and strength, and has been competing against men in the Swedish Elite League all year, so he may be ready to step in and play in the NHL right away."

He has been compared (in terms of style) to Mats Naslund, Markus Naslund, Ales Hemsky, Maxim Afinogenov, Alexei Kovalev and even Pavel Bure. The problem with all of those comparables is that the range of style is pretty incredible. Pavel Bure and Ales Hemsky are wonderful comps, but they're not terribly similar players. Mats Naslund was a wonderful player, but this guy is a giant in comparison.

So, where do we start? I like to begin at the draft. Here are the Swedish forwards who played in the SEL at age 17 and were drafted in the 1st round from 1991-2009. I've listed their draft number, the year, their boxcars, their points-per-game and their percentage of team offense. They are ranked by points-per-game:

1. Peter Forsberg (#6-'91) 23gp, 7-10-17 .739 12.78%
2. Markus Naslund (#16-'91) 32gp, 10-9-19 .594 14.28%
3. Niklas Backstrom (#4-'06) 46gp, 10-16-26 .565 22.8%
4. Robert Nilsson (#15-03) 41gp, 8-13-21 .512 14.89%
5. Niklas Sundstrom (#8-'93) 8gp, 1-3-4 .500 3.38%
6. Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson (#10-'09) 50gp, 7-10-17 .340 11.18%
7. Jacob Josefson (#20-'09) 50gp, 5-11-16 .320 10.73%
8. Daniel Sedin (#2-'99) 45gp, 4-8-12 .267 9.3%
9. Fredrik Sjostrom (#11-'01) 31gp, 2-3-5 .161 3.22%
10. Henrik Sedin (#3-99) 39gp, 1-4-5 .128 3.88%
11. Alexander Steen (#24-'02) 26gp, 0-3-3 .115 1.66%
12. Niklas Bergfors (#23-'05) 25gp, 1-0-1 .040 0.78%
13. Anze Kopitar (#11-'05) 5gp, 0-0-0 .000 nil
14. Jonas Johansson (#28-'02) 5gp, 0-0-0 .000 nil
15. Michael Holmqvist (#18-'97) 9gp, 0-0-0 .000 nil
16. Marcus Nilsson (#20-'96) 12gp, 0-0-0 .000 nil

The math suggests the young man drafted by New Jersey this year is a nice match, but that's not really helpful. We don't know the minutes played by the Sedins but can guess it's less than MPS enjoyed this past season with Timra. The math doesn't like Naslund as a comp and it scoffs at a Forsberg comparison.

I think it's too early. I like to marry the math to a player who fits the description but no one jumps out yet. It took awhile to settle on Vincent Damphousse and Doug Gilmour as possible comps for Gagner, and it took some time to see Rick Middleton as a comp for Ales Hemsky. I don't know who we'll choose as a comp for Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson over the next 12 months and at this point I don't know if he'll be Swedish.

In terms of style I'd pick Naslund from this list, in terms of size Niklas Sundstrom is probably about right and there is no useful stats match on this list.

Respect the Cluster

Last night Kevin Prendergast gave the clearest indication yet that the Edmonton Oilers are moving on from the Dany Heatley soap opera. Quoting KP (courtesy Dan Tencer): "I think we've given up hope on the Heatley scenario; but, I guess it's not dead in the water. But, at this point, it looks like we'll go to camp with the same team we finished with last year outside of a new goaltender. I think at this point, it's pretty evident what's going to happen. But, we haven't closed the door on the whole issue yet."

Reading the tea leaves, I think we can safely say Heatley is staying in Ottawa or heading to an NHL city not named Edmonton.

Which is a really good thing. I'm not coming late to the party on this, in my opinion trading for Dany Heatley (by giving up important parts of the young cluster) would have been a mistake. I entered the summer hoping Edmonton would be able to add a free agent scorer (my hope was Gaborik) and then fill in with a veteran R and D plus suss out the goalie situation.

Steve Tambellini (so far) has acquired a goalie (Nikolai Khabibulin) and sent away Kyle Brodziak. This is not in keeping with my template and it's sure as hell not in keeping with his (a new GM has a short window of opportunity to show his acumen and Tambellini looks for all the world like the kid driving the Ford Falcon and losing the girl to the guy in the Barracuda) based on his spring press conference that sent Craig MacTavish away.

The most important item as I see it is keeping the cluser intact. From Ales Hemsky at the top end to Sam Gagner at the bottom, the Oilers have a nice collection of players who could exceed their contracts in 2009-10. Added to the veterans who are getting paid (Horcoff, Moreau, Pisani, Souray, Visnovsky, Staios, Khabibulin) this club should be able to add a few parts and then contend for the second season. Let's list the young cluster:

• Ales Hemsky, Tom Gilbert (26)
• Denis Grebeshkov (25)
• Patrick O'Sullivan, Robert Nilsson, JF Jacques, Marc Pouliot, Zack Stortini (24)
• Ladislav Smid (23)
• Andrew Cogliano (22)
• Sam Gagner (20)

Now, let's compare that young cluster to the group in the same bracket who play for the Calgary Flames:

• Jay Bouwmeester, Curtis Glencross, Eric Nystrom, Fredrick Sjostrom (26)
• Marc Giordano (25)
• Dion Phaneuf, Nigel Dawes (24)
• Dustin Boyd (23)

The Flames have added heavily (and smartly) to this cluster during the summer and the Oilers attempted to subtract heavily. Over the last several years Calgary has been the superior club and they've most certainly had a superior summer.

Dany Heatley would be a short term fix and would subtract from the future. Not to the extent that Calgary adding Bouwmeester did, but certainly enough to tip the scales from the point they were before the deal with Florida.

Kevin Lowe set this team on a rebuilding course the moment he traded Chris Pronger for kids and had no plan to replace Pronger's minutes on the big club. Moving off course, divorcing the kids aged 20-26 and the ones coming up now would be an extremely poor bet. We've seen what Jarome Iginla can do to a generation of Oilers-Flames games, but the promise of Gagner, Cogliano and Hemsky and Gilbert is that a new day is just around the corner. Start messing with that and we'll be hoping for 8th place forever. Surely there's a better way.

I'm fine with the Khabibulin signing--it's just money. I'm fine with dealing Brodziak because he wanted more money--his skill set is replaceable. But leave the main components of the cluster alone: Hemsky, Gilbert, Grebeshkov, possibly O'Sullivan and certainly Cogliano and Gagner.

The Oilers have not had a good summer, there were better moves to be made. However, I'm thrilled that Cogliano is still an Oiler and look forward to seeing how much better he and the others will be when they mature into actual NHL players. The failed Heatley deal along with a solid draft featuring a "manna from heaven" moment in the first round are strong arrows in the right direction. These moves stand for staying the course, building through the draft and not sending away kids in the "Miro Satan as an Oiler" phase of their careers.

Respect the cluster.

Opening Night Rosters (Projecting 09-10)

I would normally begin a long series of "reasonable expectations" and "comparables" posts at this time of year. We'd project next season and find out that very few Swedish forwards have been top 10 picks and that finding a comp for MPS will be difficult.

However, there's so much up in the air with regard to the NHL and AHL roster at this point I'm going to delay the reasonable expectations posts with the exception of this review.

Over the last several seasons I've mentioned the ridiculous lack of balance on the Oiler roster on each opening night. We have seen some progress (the blue has some nice experience now) but there are still challenges. Here's a look book and ahead.

Opening Night Fall 2005

• L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Dvorak
• L2: Peca-Torres-Hemsky
• L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
• L4: Reasoner-Harvey-Laraque
• D1: Pronger-Staios
• D2: Ulanov-Smith
• D3: Cross-Bergeron

Important things to note here are just how many two-way veterans are in the lineup up front. Dvorak might not look sexy in the top 6 but he did some nice things. It's also interesting to note that Mike Peca is out there again and the current group of forwards could use a hand like Peca.

The combined NHL games played of this D group opening night was 3333. Pronger (722), J. Smith (710), Ulanov (702), Cross (603), Staios (537) and Bergeron (59). That's a lot of NHL experience and I think this roster represents MacT's comfort zone: Some gifted young players coming along in defined roles, with veterans surrounding them both F and D. I think we could reasonably name this roster "ideal for Oilers" and be close to top dead center.

A beauty team.

Opening Night Fall 2006

• L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Lupul
• L2: Sykora-Torres-Hemsky
• L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
• L4: Reasoner-Thoresen-Winchester
• D1: Tjarnqvist-Smith
• D2: Smid-Staios
• D3: Bergeron-Greene

Important notes here include Smid's role on the team despite being 20 years old and having no NHL experience, the hugely significant change on the 1line and the fact that Stoll-Moreau-Pisani was together two opening nights in a row.

The combined NHL games played total for those 6 defensemen entering opening night was 1871: J. Smith (786), Staios (619), Tjarnqvist (278), Bergeron (134), Matt Greene (27) and Ladislav Smid (0). The Oilers began the season with two rookies and another player with less than 2 NHL seasons under his belt, and gave up over 1450 games of NHL experience to the previous club (that had a very strong chance at the Stanley). Kevin Lowe traded Chris Pronger without a plan and that is reflected on this blue.

Opening Night Fall 2007

• L1: Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
• L2: Stoll-Torres-Nilsson
• L3: Reasoner-Sanderson-Brodziak
• L4: Cogliano-Jacques-Gagner
• D1: Pitkanen-Staios
• D2: Souray-Greene
• D3: Tarnstrom-Gilbert

Important notes here include the promise of that 2line, how much Brodziak had impressed during TC to earn that elevated role, the fact that Jacques is so unique he keeps getting chances. For those who STILL complain about Horcoff in the 1line role: give your head a shake. You don't keep a job for three NHL seasons if the results aren't there.

The combined NHL games played this time? 1558. Staios 677, Souray 506, Tarnstrom 258, Pitkanen 206, Greene 105 and Gilbert 12. Only one rookie this time, who would eventually pass Greene during the season (he passed Smid in TC). ANOTHER 313 games lost in terms of NHL experience when compared to the Stanley team.

I also come back to that 2line. It started with promise, faded, resulted in Stortini being placed on that line (with some incredible on-ice reaction from Stoll and Torres) and may or may not have contributed to Stoll and Torres leaving town.

Opening Night 2008

• L1: Horcoff-Cole-Hemsky
• L2: Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson
• L3: Pisani-Moreau-Penner
• L4: Brodziak-Pouliot-Stortini
• D1: Visnovsky-Souray
• D2: Grebeskhov-Gilbert
• D3: Strudwick-Staios
• Garon started and that was news.

Important notes include Cole on 1line LW and Pisani at center. The kid line started the season together and the 4line once again featured Pouliot out of position. The D pairings looked more experienced and less ragged and Strudwick knocked Smid upstairs to begin the season.

The combined D games in the NHL? 2628, which is a massive improvement. Steve Staios 759, Sheldon Souray 532, Lubomir Visnovsky 499, Jason Strudwick 488, Ladislav Smid 142, Denis Grebeshkov 104 and Tom Gilbert 94. It's not perfect but this was a nice improvement for the club.

I should also mention the ill-fated goalie platoon and that MacT went off the rails (Pisani at center, etc) a little this season. It was a trying year for the organization.

Opening Night 2009 (Projected)

• L1: Horcoff-Penner-Hemsky
• L2: Gagner-O'Sullivan-Nilsson
• L3: Cogliano-Moreau-Pisani
• L4: Pouliot-Jacques-Stortini
• D1: Souray-Visnovsky
• D2: Grebeshkov-Gilbert
• D3: Smid-Staios

I like the top line. Horcoff is a splendid player and the most complete forward available on this roster. Hemsky is touched by God and although there is chaos he is the offensive driver on this roster. Penner has holes in his game but can help in the offensive zone and on the powerplay.

The 2line is small and skilled, destined to buzz at home and fizzle on the road. A huge leap forward from Gagner (and Cogliano) is both historically possible and terribly necessary. The 3line has two old hands with injury concerns and the belief they are on the back 9, along with a young and inconsistent center who bleeds opportunities. I cannot believe Pat Quinn will coach a single game with this line as posted. The 4line is a crash and bang line and makes sense based on Pat Quinn's established preference for his bottom six forwards.

The combined D games in the NHL? 3114, which is a wonderful number. Steve Staios 839, Sheldon Souray 613, Jason Strudwick 559, Lubomir Visnovsky 549, Ladislav Smid 202, Tom Gilbert and Denis Grebeskhov 176 each. I think you can make a strong case that this blue is good enough to make the second season and has enough depth and sustain to be successful in the playoffs. Another veteran would help, though.

It's early. However, the Heatley trade looks dead in the water and the prospects of unloading some of these salaries seems a distant bell. The Oilers will make changes to improve center and will shop for help in terms of size and scoring up front.

Oilers sign McDonald

This is Colin McDonald in the faceoff circle for the Springfield Falcons. According to capgeek (or, the Bible as it is quickly becoming known) the Edmonton Oilers have signed McDonald to a 1-year, $550,000 contract. This actually represents a cut in pay on his entry level deal ($662,500) but he never saw the light of day anyway during that contract.

I think this may be a huge year in the career of Colin McDonald. After a couple of seasons of running in place, there are several significant arrows pointing in the right direction.

First, he seemed to blossom under coach Rob Daum late in this past AHL season. In McDonald's final 10 games of the season, he went 3-2-5 +1 (he was 7-10-17 -9 in his previous 67 games). Also (according to Jonathan Willis' Quality of Competition for the Falcons) he played tough minutes all year.

We can't get ahead of ourselves here, the Oilers have plenty of options when it comes to wingers with size. McDonald has a plus shot (that hasn't fooled AHL goalies) and although he does have size he's not using it as much as the organization would like him to based on reports.

McDonald may have caught a break with the coaching change. Pat Quinn likes the big wingers for the bottom 6 F's and McDonald has a clean slate with him. When Craig MacTavish arrived in Edmonton fall 2000, he elevated an entire line (Bulldog line-Brian Swanson, Michel Riesen and Daniel Cleary) along with defenseman Brad Norton and big winger Dan Lacouture. If McDonald had some more of Lacouture's grit, he'd have an even better chance at sticking with the big club for 2009-10.
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I like to do comparables from time to time, and will spend quite a bit of this summer on the subject. I've compared Colin McDonald in the past to college forwards Fernando Pisani and Brad Winchester and would like to add this past season to the comparison. You can find the yearly results going back to college here but for today I'll just focus on the pro seasons.

Age 23

• Pisani 52gp, 12-13-25 (.481ppg) AHL
• McDonald 73gp, 12-11-23 (.315ppg) AHL
• Winchester 65gp, 13-6-19 (.292ppg) AHL

We don't really know the time on ice, the role of each player and there is certainly a difference in the offense of each team. McDonald was 8th on his team in points in his first pro season, Winchester was 15th in team scoring as an AHL rookie (this was not a shared farm team) and Pisani was 8th on his club. I should also mention that during this time the Oilers expressed concerns about Winchester not using his size as an asset.

Age 24

• Fernando Pisani 79gp, 26-34-60 (.759ppg) AHL
• Brad Winchester 76gp, 22-18-40 (.526ppg) AHL
• Colin McDonald 77gp, 10-12-22 (.286ppg) AHL

McDonald clearly had an inferior season to both of the men we're comparing him to here. Pisani was in on 24.3% of his team's offense and ranked 4th in points. Winchester was in on 20.3% of his team's offense and was 3rd on the club in points. McDonald was in on 12.15% of his team's offense and ranked 6th among Falcons in 09-10. In the interests of giving him every possible leeway, McDonald did play tough minutes and we don't know for certain how that would compare to the other two (although logic and good sense tells us Pisani had been climbing hills long before he arrived in Edmonton).

At this point we could reasonably expect about 11 points (Desjardins' NHLE) from McDonald in a full season. That's Stortini territory, and there's little doubt Zack Stortini is a better 11 point player than Colin McDonald.

Oilers sign Dubnyk

The Edmonton Oilers signed their de facto "goalie of the future" to a one-year contract today. Dubnyk was a restricted free agent without arbitration rights so this might be viewed as a minor move save for the Liam Reddox news of yesterday.

Dubnyk is expected to be the #1 goalie for Springfield in 2009-10 and is likely to play in front of a much better hockey club. Those of us who have been holding out hope for the big goalie have been wondering what DD could do with an experienced lineup in front of him.

We're about to find out, and in fact should Dubnyk play well enough it's certainly possible that he'll see some NHL action during 2009-10. With Jeff Deslauriers as the backup in Edmonton, opportunity may come knocking before Christmas.

Oilers sign Rajala

This is Toni Rajala. The hard earned lessons of Jani Rita and Tony Salmelainen may help Rajala make an impact in the show. Word this morning from capgeek (my new favorite site) that the Oilers have signed the Finn to an entry level deal. He'll play this season in Brandon (WHL) if his Finnish club team (Ilves) gives approval.

Rajala fell to #101 at the draft because of his lack of size, but the major scouting services had him mid-second round (Redline: 43, McKenzie: 50) and the Oilers have apparently moved quickly to protect an asset.

The scouting report reads "Rajala has been the focus of a lot of hype from a very young age. He has dominated every level he has played at in Finland and shown very well during international competitions. He had the most eyes looking his way at World U18 Championship he didn’t shy away but rather further pushed the spot light his way. Rajala needed to have a big tournament and do that he did, finishing with 19 pts in 6 games, eclipsing the previous U18 scoring record set by some kid named Ovechkin. He is said to be too small, but he is feisty and didn’t back down when challenged. He had a tremendous second half of the bronze game against Canada and was easily the best player on the ice for either team."

The Oilers watched as Jani Rita died on the vine with 5 minutes a night playing for his SM-LIIGA squad after impressing at the various world junior tournaments. I think the club may have decided that with a player like Rajala the best way to ensure success was to have him playing in North America and with kids his own age. Unlike Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson (who played 11:13 a night in the SEL at 17), Rajala could easily get lost on a Finnish 4th line.

The contract will count against the 50 mission cap if Rajala played in 11 NHL games (same as Eberle). Not counting those two teenagers, the Oilers number stands at 45 this morning.

No Reddox Redux

According to tsn, Liam Reddox has rejected his qualifying offer from the Oilers. tsn suggests he is likely headed for Europe for the coming season. At first blush I'm not certain what to make of this news. It could mean the Oilers suggested to Reddox he might not be a regular under Pat Quinn or it could indicate that Reddox and his agent want him traded elsewhere.

Either way, it is certainly a move that screams "unusual" and I'd expect there's a story behind it.